InformedTrades http://ift.tt/1D1z9aP
Government bond yields are increasingly negative, the markets realize this -- and people are still buying them. Here are some links below that discuss this development:
Negative-Yielding Bonds Proliferate -- Trefis
http://ift.tt/15ZYvZB
How to profit from negative bond yields.
Owners of Negative-Yield Sovereign Debt Say They?re No Fools - Bloomberg Business
Nearly a quarter of euro zone government bonds offer negative yields - Tradeweb | Reuters
Why are people buying them? As this ZeroHedge article discusses, a few main reasons:
1. Currency Appreciation: many of the bonds with negative yields have currencies that are rising in value. For instance, the Swiss Franc has a negative yield, but it's also rallied more than 30% against CHF over the past month, which makes the negative yield a fairly trivial cost to pay.
2. Carry Trade: As rates go further and further into negative territory, borrowing a bond with a very negative rate to buy a bond with a less negative rating could still result in a positive yield. For instance, big banks holding funds at the ECB are paying a negative interest to do so, but they can finance the purchase by borrowing Danish Krone -- which are currently yielding even less (i.e. more negative), which in turn results in a positive carry trade.
How much longer will this situation continue? Personally, I believe we're coming to the end of the bond bubble, but I wouldn't short just yet -- as the last leg can be the most explosive. Eventually, though, an enormous amount of capital may exit government bonds, which may have the effect of bidding up everything else: commodities, gold, equities, etc.
What do you think?
Negative-Yielding Bonds Proliferate -- Trefis
http://ift.tt/15ZYvZB
How to profit from negative bond yields.
Owners of Negative-Yield Sovereign Debt Say They?re No Fools - Bloomberg Business
Nearly a quarter of euro zone government bonds offer negative yields - Tradeweb | Reuters
Why are people buying them? As this ZeroHedge article discusses, a few main reasons:
1. Currency Appreciation: many of the bonds with negative yields have currencies that are rising in value. For instance, the Swiss Franc has a negative yield, but it's also rallied more than 30% against CHF over the past month, which makes the negative yield a fairly trivial cost to pay.
2. Carry Trade: As rates go further and further into negative territory, borrowing a bond with a very negative rate to buy a bond with a less negative rating could still result in a positive yield. For instance, big banks holding funds at the ECB are paying a negative interest to do so, but they can finance the purchase by borrowing Danish Krone -- which are currently yielding even less (i.e. more negative), which in turn results in a positive carry trade.
How much longer will this situation continue? Personally, I believe we're coming to the end of the bond bubble, but I wouldn't short just yet -- as the last leg can be the most explosive. Eventually, though, an enormous amount of capital may exit government bonds, which may have the effect of bidding up everything else: commodities, gold, equities, etc.
What do you think?
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